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Arizona could face its first Central Arizona Project shortage in 2012, CAP officials said two weeks ago, if this year's Colorado River flows into Lake Powell are as low as forecast - 78 percent of normal - and if next year's river flows are also low.

The shortage would take away less than one-fifth of the CAP's supply, and wouldn't affect cities such as Tucson except for water that the city now sinks into basins for recharge. Full-fledged municipal CAP shortages aren't forecast until 2025.

The Star interviewed six water experts about how people and governments in Arizona are likely to respond to the threat of a shortage:

1. Chris Avery, chief water counsel, city of Tucson: "It will not cause any major changes at the city level. A shortage was much more likely in spring 2006 when Lake Powell was at 33 percent full. We've been trying to make sure that our Colorado River allocation is protected from shortage, so when a shortage hits municipal and industrial users, at that point we are hoping we have enough water stored in the ground in our active management area to have a backup available. ... We've been concerned about a shortage for a long time. Nobody has been asleep on the wheel on Colorado River issues." 2. Bruce Gungle, Tucson environmentalist, member of city/county Water and Wastewater Study Oversight Committee and a Pima County planning and zoning commissioner: "The committee felt fairly comfortable with Tucson Water's actions on behalf of the community. ... I think it would be premature to act on more aggressive conservation measures. The steps they are asking at this time, given what we know, are adequate. We need to see how things unfold before further steps are taken."

3. Tom McCann, assistant general manager for operations, planning and engineering for the Central Arizona Project: "I would suspect that the type of shortage that we might face in 2012 would generate some media attention but would be unlikely to have any significant impact on municipal water use. ... The looming threat of shortage was not significant enough to stop the state from forcing the layoff of 47 employees at the Department of Water Resources on Jan. 7, more than 25 percent of the department's entire work force."

4. Herb Guenther, director, Arizona Department of Water Resources: "It's something we've been preparing for for some time. We knew that either because of continued overuse, since the Colorado River was overappropriated, and as the Upper Basin grows into their authorized use ... that the water is not going to be there. Based upon the dendrochronology of the tree rings, there will be extended periods of drought we haven't seen in modern history. A shortage in 2012 would be a reminder of how fragile the system is, and we had better accelerate while we still have the opportunities to do initiatives to augment the system with weather modification and desalination."

5. Val Little, director, Water Conservation Alliance of Southern Arizona: "It's definitely already had an impact. I think there's a cumulative effect. Every time there is a newspaper article or a TV story about water levels or shortages, even though people don't understand the details, like a marketing campaign, it does register. Even before the recession started, we were seeing a steady ratcheting down of water use. We have a way to solve the problem. It is just going to cost a lot of money. When people start seeing the cost of desal (desalination), I think they will quickly turn to saying, 'OK, I will use a lot less.' "

6. Sharon Megdal, director, University of Arizona Water Resources Research Center: "I think it will have a significant impact on peoples' thoughts on water supply - that they understand that shortages are real, not something just talked about. Not long ago, people said, 'We know there will be shortages, but not this soon,' so it's earlier than people expected. I think it's important for people not to become alarmed about the magnitude of the shortage that could occur. We could end up having significant storms that help the runoff. But I think people have to be tuned into the fact that we are the lowest priority on the Colorado River and that has implications for us. People are trying to do something about it and stay ahead of the curve. People need to be vigilant. I think people are."

DID YOU KNOW

The Central Arizona Project is a 336-mile collection of pipelines and canals pumping Colorado River uphill from Lake Havasu, in Western Arizona, south and east to Tucson. Its supply is dependent in part on the storage levels in Lake Powell.

The CAP is expected to run short at times in part because the Colorado River is overallocated among seven states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah.

If the river does run short, the CAP is last on the priority list for water deliveries from the river, under the 1968 law that authorized the $3.6 billion project's construction.

Contact reporter Tony Davis at 806-7746 or tdavis@azstarnet.com

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Last Update: October 30, 2007